Ben Bajarin: Three tablet predictions for 2012

With 2012 on the horizon, Creative Strategies' Ben Bajarin takes a look at some of the key developments he expects to see in the coming year.

We know this market is taking off extremely fast. We also know that it is quickly becoming one of the hottest categories in computing across all product and category releases. Tablets are clearly no longer viewed as a fad but as a viable platform for computing. According to comScore's Digital Omnivore report, it took 7 years to sell 20 million smartphones and only 20 months to sell 20 million tablets.

My firm is forecasting that globally, vendors will sell north of 100 million tablets in 2012. That represents 110% growth for the category, which means it's going to be an exciting year for the tablet category.

There are three big movements I see occuring in the market in the next 12 months.

1. Growth in enterprise

Tablets, and specifically iPads, are rapidly gaining traction in the enterprise. Right now the bulk of Fortune 500 companies are testing or deploying iPad in their business. This is often being driven from the top down with the CEO telling their IT departments to support the iPad and come up with strategic ways to implement it into business processes.

The iPad vs the PC in enterprise IT is an interesting discussion we are going to be hearing a lot about. Many IT managers we are interviewing are communicating how they believe supporting iPad in their companies will actually help them control and manage support costs better.

Because the iPad seems to be more durable and less fragile than notebook computers, IT managers are becoming savvy to its benefits as a mobile tool. If you’re thinking notebooks are more durable, well, yes and no. The iPad has an edge because it has less moving parts, and the all-in-one body construction means you don’t have the keys falling off and the hinges breaking that you see out in the field with notebooks.

But I don’t see tablets replacing PCs in the enterprise anytime soon. It’s more that tablets are better equipped for certain jobs in the enterprise.

It is certain, however, that tablet growth will have an impact on traditional PCs. Where the enterprise refresh rates for PCs have been amongst the larger growth factors for the PC industry, we may see a decline for the traditional PC form factor in 2012.

2. New design form factors

The next big thing I see happening with tablets in 2012 is more experimentation in the tablet form-factor. Some of this will occur in screen size, but I also expect to see a lot of design variation with tablets and detachable keyboards.

Tablets are continuing to find their role in the market as not just consumption tools but also as productivity tools. The key for this in the workforce is the combination of touch and a physical keyboard.

I also anticipate several form factor designs with more advanced and useful pen / stylus solutions as well. I believe the sweet spot for a tablet is to combine touch, pen, and a keyboard for a holistic computing platform. Time will tell whether or not the designs in 2012 will nail this solution but we will begin to see them come to market next year.

3. Tablets will be considered PCs

Because of the growth of the tablet in the enterprise, as well as the trend in new designs that include keyboards, I predict tablets will be embraced by market researchers and other analysts as PCs and thus will be included in PC industry growth reports and forecasts.

My firm is moving in this direction and last month analyst firms Canalys included tablets in its global PC shipment forecasts, leading it to predict that Apple would be the leading PC vendor in 2012.

This is a move I applaud and in 2012 I expect IDC, Gartner, Forrester and other larger firms to also begin to include tablets as a part of the PC industry reports and forecasts.

Although there is controversy as to whether tablets should be considered PCs, it is a good debate for the industry to have and flesh out. I believe the tablet represents a powerful mobile computing platform and therefore is by definition a portable computer. Tablets can do things PCs can't and can go places PCs never will.

The key thing to remember is that the tablet market is still maturing. Both consumers and enterprises are still in the early phases of figuring out how a tablet adds value to their life and business.

2012 will take us one step closer to a mature market but it will also be a year where we will see exciting innovation and competition.

Ben Bajarin is the Director of Consumer Technology Practice at Creative Strategies, Inc., a strategy consulting firm in Silicon Valley.

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