“We anticipate very strong sales of the iPad 2 for the holiday quarter, and we are modeling iPad units ramping from 11.1 million units in the September quarter to 14.0 million units in the December quarter”, wrote Canaccord Genuity research analyst T. Michael Walkley, in a research note.
Despite this, and the fact that the researcher expects Apple’s tablet sales to almost triple over the results of 2010, Apple’s market share is expected to slide slightly, as more tablet PCs come to market.
Walkley said that Apple had a market share of 82% last year, when the Samsung Galaxy Tab was the iPad’s only real competitor, but the analyst expects this percentage to drop to 65% in 2011.
Walkley expects this slide to slow to 57% in 2012, despite more models from rivals like Amazon, Asus, Samsung and HTC, as he expects these firms to battle with one another.
“While new entrants such as Amazon could disrupt the completive dynamics into holiday sales, we view low-priced 7-inch models as a threat to other Android OEMs rather than to the iPad”, said Walkley.
“As such, given our updated iPad estimates, we anticipate Apple will command roughly 65-percent of the tablet units sold into the channel during C2011. However, we believe Apple’s sell-through share of the tablet market will exceed 75-percent during C2011”.