Is this the most aggressive tablet forecast ever?

June 26, 2013
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Tablets will account for about 80% of all computers sold by 2016, according to an article at the site Twice, quoting CEA researchers. The CEA is the group behind the giant CES consumer electronics show. 

A big part of tablet’s growth will come at the expense of PC sales as well as lower  cost tablet models. Jack Cutts, CEA’s business intelligence senior manager, said he expects $99 tablets to be available for this holiday shopping season. 

The desktop replacement cycle is also much slower than it is for tablets. An article in Dealerscope on the CEA event says the majority of consumers replace their desktops every 4.5 years and notebooks about every 3.5 years, but most consumers plan to replace their tablets about every 20 months. 

Steve Baker, VP of industry analysis for the NPD Group, disputed another analyst’s forecast that PC sales are set for a steep decline. 

"PC sales aren't going down by double digits," he said,  noting the 3% to 5% decline in PC sales expected this year is less than last year. "Are PCs going away, absolutely not. We see no evidence that people are using tablets to create content. PCs and tablets are not competing devices; they are both computing devices" used for different needs.

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